Putin's Great Ukrainian Blunder

Austin Bay
Tue, 24 Feb 2026 18:34:52 -0800
Opinion

Four years after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched his blitzkrieg "special operation" to seize and annex every square kilometer of Ukraine, the former KGB colonel finds his corrupt, ineffectual but relentlessly murderous regime in a 21st-century military, economic and political quagmire.

Putin told his oligarch devotees the special operation would take three weeks at most.

Facts matter. He was dead wrong, and so were several thousand Russians. Some 2,000 (perhaps more) Russian paratroopers and special operations personnel died in the first three days, killed as they attempted to storm Kyiv. It takes years to recruit and train these elite warfighters. They were slaughtered by Ukraine's surprisingly prepared and confident defenders. Within two weeks, the world learned Ukraine was a nation in arms, a nation of citizen warfighters.
Updated: Wed Feb 25, 2026

Four years after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched his blitzkrieg "special operation" to seize and annex every square kilometer of Ukraine, the former KGB colonel finds his corrupt, ineffectual but relentlessly murderous regime in a 21st-century military, economic and political quagmire.

Putin told his oligarch devotees the special operation would take three weeks at most.

Facts matter. He was dead wrong, and so were several thousand Russians. Some 2,000 (perhaps more) Russian paratroopers and special operations personnel died in the first three days, killed as they attempted to storm Kyiv. It takes years to recruit and train these elite warfighters. They were slaughtered by Ukraine's surprisingly prepared and confident defenders. Within two weeks, the world learned Ukraine was a nation in arms, a nation of citizen warfighters.

Finland, South Korea and Israel are other examples. Switzerland claims to be, but Ukraine definitely is.

Ukraine had eight years to prepare. On Feb. 25, 2014 — during the Obama administration — without provocation, Vladimir Putin's Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimean peninsula. On March 18, 2014, Putin's Russia annexed Crimea. That made March 18 in Europe very different from March 17, and for that matter, any day since the end of World War II.

Why? Because military aggression in Europe by a major European power had led to political annexation and territorial expansion. Putin's Russia also violated the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which traded Ukrainian nuclear weapons for territorial security guarantees. Bill Clinton signed the memo. Western anti-nuke activists touted the agreement as a portent of eventual global nuclear disarmament.

Obama sent nonlethal aid to Ukraine. Trump Admin One sent weapons, including the Javelin anti-tank missile. In 2022, Javelin-armed Ukrainians devastated Russian tank and mechanized infantry columns, using tactics similar to Finnish troops attacking Stalin's invaders in 1940.

Russia has suffered enormous losses. StrategyPage.com recently reported: "Total Russian losses since 2022 have been 1.4 million dead, disabled and missing." StrategyPage estimated Russian forces have suffered 400,000 casualties in the last 12 months and are currently "losing up to 35,000 soldiers a month." Mediazona researchers confirm by name 200,000 Russians military dead. Russia's government provides no figures. Two hundred thousand named dead makes a 400,000 death toll plausible.

Ukraine has suffered 55,000 military dead and some 300,000 wounded. Fifteen thousand civilians have been killed and 42,000 wounded.

Despite Russia's size, Ukraine continues to resist. The courageous Ukrainian people have proved to be creative warfighting entrepreneurs who can rapidly improvise tactics and weapons. Homemade drone warfare is only one example.

Who is winning? Within Ukraine, no one is winning. The two belligerents fight a bitter war of attrition along World War I-like fortified lines. Putin's invasion maxed out in March 2022, holding 26% of Ukraine. Russian forces now hold about 19% of Ukraine's pre-war territory.

Strategically, however, Russia has suffered huge political and economic losses.

Call it Putin's Great Ukrainian Blunder. Putin's 2014 Crimea theft revitalized NATO. "Neutrals" Finland and Sweden are now NATO members. Austria and Switzerland are signing on to a Europe-wide air-space defense initiative. Russia belligerence (and Trump theatrics) convinced NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

Putin's Blunder has left his regime with limited international military, economic and diplomatic leverage. Donald Trump's America knocked off Kremlin-supported Venezuela. Putin's Kremlin responded with verbal squawk. Without Venezuelan oil, Cuba strangles.

America's Midnight Hammer bomber raid smashed Iran's key nuclear weapons facilities. Russian response: U.N. bellowing. America's Gaza initiative? More Russian blather. Trump proposes the Board of Peace — a U.N.-like organization where Russia and China have no veto. Putin can only respond with a sneer that even TikTok addicts ignore.

Yet Putin strings along Trump-sponsored Ukraine peace negotiations.

Is the Trump administration playing 21st-century Machiavelli, cannily freezing Putin with thoughts of Ukrainian territory while toppling Russian clients and criminal actors?

No. I think Putin is delusional to the point of insanity. Putin created this horror. In 2004, he indicated he wanted to revive the Russian empire. In 2005, he called the collapse of the Soviet Union a tragedy. Trump bets reality will overcome Vlad's delusion. Pray Trump's right, but I think he's wrong.

Time and again, obsessed, powerful despots seize the bloody initiative, pursuing empire or Lebensraum nach Osten or a global caliphate. These destructive actors perpetually scourge humanity.

I made this recommendation in a March 2022 column: "The best way out of this stupid, murderous war — for Russians, for Ukrainians, the rest of the world, including greedy oligarchs — isn't more sanctions or more war. The way out for the oligarchs is a Kremlin coup toppling Putin. The gallows humorists call it a nine-millimeter solution — a bullet to the insane man's head."