Hardball

Susan Estrich
Wed, 22 Apr 2026 23:00:00 -0700
Opinion

What next? The war is not going well. Already, there are loud whispers that President Donald Trump may be forced to accept a deal that is not much better than the one former President Barack Obama made with Iran, which Trump tore up in his first term, leading to the nuclear development that underlies the current crisis. Trump can call it anything he wants — he will surely call whatever deal he makes the biggest victory ever — but he's going to have a hard time getting away with it, at home and abroad.

Pete Hegseth, surprise of surprise, is not playing it straight in terms of Iran's capacity to make this an ugly war. Hegseth has said that the Iranian Air Force "has been wiped out" and its Navy is "at the bottom of the sea." But according to news reports of a document submitted to the House by Lt. Gen. James Adams, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, "Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack (drones) that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure." Moreover, according to its sources, NBC News is reporting that more than half of Iran's Air Force and more than half of its specialized Navy vessels also remain intact.

Iran has the capacity to inflict significant damage and to prolong this dispute. Trump had little choice but to blink and extend the ceasefire with no assurances from the Iranians. Politically speaking and that is Trump's native tongue, he needs this war to end. The country is not on his side, the market wants it to be over and the longer it goes on and the higher gas prices and inflation go, the worse Trump's prospects are in November.
Updated: Thu Apr 23, 2026

What next? The war is not going well. Already, there are loud whispers that President Donald Trump may be forced to accept a deal that is not much better than the one former President Barack Obama made with Iran, which Trump tore up in his first term, leading to the nuclear development that underlies the current crisis. Trump can call it anything he wants — he will surely call whatever deal he makes the biggest victory ever — but he's going to have a hard time getting away with it, at home and abroad.

Pete Hegseth, surprise of surprise, is not playing it straight in terms of Iran's capacity to make this an ugly war. Hegseth has said that the Iranian Air Force "has been wiped out" and its Navy is "at the bottom of the sea." But according to news reports of a document submitted to the House by Lt. Gen. James Adams, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, "Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack (drones) that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure." Moreover, according to its sources, NBC News is reporting that more than half of Iran's Air Force and more than half of its specialized Navy vessels also remain intact.

Iran has the capacity to inflict significant damage and to prolong this dispute. Trump had little choice but to blink and extend the ceasefire with no assurances from the Iranians. Politically speaking and that is Trump's native tongue, he needs this war to end. The country is not on his side, the market wants it to be over and the longer it goes on and the higher gas prices and inflation go, the worse Trump's prospects are in November.

This is the problem with getting into a war without a clear plan and an exit strategy. The conduct of the war to date, brilliant and courageous as our military has been, has exposed Iran's will and capacity to fight back and the absence of any plan. Are we really in this to wipe out a civilization, as Trump has bragged? There is a price to be paid for doing so and this administration can't make the case for it. Trump is reportedly angry and frustrated. How does he think we feel?

No one is going to let him off the hook for this one. His own party is stabbing him in the back. Tucker Carlson is openly remorseful about his very substantial role in getting Trump elected. Apparently, he had no idea that making a megalomaniac commander-in-chief of the most powerful force in the world would lead to such misadventures. How come? Right now, the Republicans are divided. The Democrats have only one game. That is hardball.

When they go low, we go high. Those were the Obama days. No more. "When they go low, we go hard," Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Leader, said, describing Democrats' victory in gerrymandering the hell out of Virginia to create more Democratic House seats. It tells you everything you need to know that the Virginia map is temporary and that control over redistricting will return to a bipartisan commission after the next census. Of course, districts should not be drawn for the sole purpose of expanding one party's dominance.

I'm one of those Democrats who has long favored bipartisan commissions to draw these lines. I also believe in campaign finance reform. But those beliefs are for normal times. And these are not normal times. If you believe that stopping Trump's agenda for the next two years is the existential imperative of politics and that is what activist Democrats surely believe, then hardball is the only game in town.